Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.003806 0.004167 0.004554 0.005000 0.005501 0.006048 0.006693
2025-12-07 0.003284 0.003807 0.004407 0.005153 0.006062 0.007141 0.008533
2025-12-14 0.002884 0.003467 0.004169 0.005086 0.006266 0.007753 0.009800
2025-12-21 0.002576 0.003185 0.003945 0.004976 0.006363 0.008197 0.010863
2025-12-28 0.002356 0.002983 0.003788 0.004920 0.006501 0.008682 0.012013
2026-01-04 0.002208 0.002856 0.003712 0.004952 0.006746 0.009324 0.013452
2026-01-11 0.002051 0.002701 0.003580 0.004886 0.006837 0.009739 0.014588
2026-01-18 0.001923 0.002573 0.003472 0.004841 0.006945 0.010183 0.015813
2026-01-25 0.001805 0.002451 0.003361 0.004779 0.007015 0.010564 0.016976
2026-02-01 0.001721 0.002371 0.003303 0.004787 0.007192 0.011128 0.018524
2026-02-08 0.001627 0.002269 0.003206 0.004725 0.007245 0.011487 0.019745
2026-02-15 0.001537 0.002168 0.003101 0.004643 0.007255 0.011767 0.020848
2026-02-22 0.001482 0.002120 0.003080 0.004700 0.007520 0.012554 0.023124
2026-03-01 0.001450 0.002103 0.003107 0.004843 0.007951 0.013705 0.026378
2026-03-08 0.001376 0.002018 0.003019 0.004781 0.008008 0.014150 0.028197
2026-03-15 0.001300 0.001926 0.002913 0.004679 0.007978 0.014419 0.029665
2026-03-22 0.001241 0.001856 0.002840 0.004627 0.008036 0.014870 0.031645
2026-03-29 0.001201 0.001816 0.002813 0.004656 0.008253 0.015677 0.034657
2026-04-05 0.001148 0.001751 0.002740 0.004595 0.008285 0.016088 0.036741
2026-04-12 0.001102 0.001695 0.002680 0.004554 0.008351 0.016582 0.039154
2026-04-19 0.001057 0.001638 0.002614 0.004496 0.008376 0.016986 0.041404
2026-04-26 0.001025 0.001603 0.002584 0.004504 0.008541 0.017736 0.044834
2026-05-03 0.000986 0.001552 0.002522 0.004446 0.008559 0.018135 0.047301